The snow globe economy | Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis

Unfortunately, child care frictions stoked by the pandemic remain elevated. The child care sector is roughly 10 percent smaller than it was before, Cascio reports—and as many parents can attest, availability was a challenge even in 2019. Lower supply, compounded with post COVID approaches to cleaning and crowding, will tend to make child care even more expensive than the $15,000-$20,000 that quality centers typically cost before the pandemic. Schools have reopened, but children are still subject to unpredictable quarantines and closures.

And while most working parents feel a child care crunch, the burden doesn’t fall evenly. Ultimately, parents with greater resources are better able to solve their child care needs, stay in the labor force, be more productive, earn more money, and invest more in their children, U.S. Census Bureau economist Misty Heggeness explained, making affordable, accessible child care an equality issue. (See “The Great Balancing Act.” )

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